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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-08-04 22:40:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 756 WTPZ25 KNHC 042040 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 133.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 133.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 133.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.3N 135.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.8N 139.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.3N 148.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 133.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-08-04 16:35:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 085 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 There have been some subtle changes in Hector during the past several hours with satellite imagery indicating a slight disruption of the eyewall convective pattern. This appears to be due to a slowly evolving eyewall cycle, which can only be readily seen by high-resolution microwave data such as AMSR2, due to Hector's small size. Intensity estimates remain virtually the same, so the wind speed is held at 105 kt. Due the eyewall cycle, future intensity changes are harder to predict. Since Hector is forecast to remain in a favorable large-scale environment, albeit with marginal SSTs, little overall change in strength is indicated during the next couple of days. Hector's small size could also make it prone to short-term fluctuations in intensity, up or down, like the one observed yesterday. In about 3 days, Hector is forecast to move over somewhat cooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so gradual weakening is shown. Little change was made to the previous NHC wind speed prediction, near or just above the model consensus. Hector is locked into a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward throughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge. Overall the model guidance is in much better agreement than yesterday, and only cosmetic changes were made to previous track forecast. There is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify the magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur. This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.2N 132.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.4N 136.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 14.7N 138.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.1N 147.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 16.6N 153.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 17.0N 158.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-04 16:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 14:35:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 15:27:53 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-04 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 4 the center of Hector was located near 14.2, -132.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 16
2018-08-04 16:34:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 084 WTPZ35 KNHC 041434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 ...SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE HECTOR CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 132.7W ABOUT 1525 MI...2455 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 1605 MI...2585 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hector. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 132.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion will likely continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, Hector is expected to reach the Central Pacific basin early Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next few days, but Hector is expected to be near major hurricane intensity through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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