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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 21
2018-08-05 22:50:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 460 WTPZ35 KNHC 052050 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 ...HECTOR BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 138.0W ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hector. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 138.0 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with some increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Hector will cross into the central Pacific basin tonight. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected tonight and Monday, but some slight weakening is forecast Monday night through Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 21
2018-08-05 22:50:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 459 WTPZ25 KNHC 052050 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HECTOR. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 138.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 138.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 137.4W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 138.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-05 16:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 14:39:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 05 Aug 2018 14:39:04 GMT
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-08-05 16:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 619 WTPZ45 KNHC 051436 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Hector continues to maintain a 10-15 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of -60 to -70 degrees Celsius cloud tops. The eye has become slightly less distinct this morning and recent microwave data suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle could be occurring. A 1111 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass shows a double eyewall structure with the inner eyewall open to the southwest. The various subjective and objective satellite estimates are between 102-110 kt, and the initial wind speed is kept near the upper-end of these estimates for now. The hurricane is moving westward or 275/10 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so as Hector is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north. The ridge is forecast to strengthen north of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week which should cause the hurricane to move on a general westward track throughout most of the remainder of the forecast period. While all of the dynamical models are in agreement on the overall scenario there is a fairly typical amount of cross-track spread with the ECMWF along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and the HMON and GFS along the northern side. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the latest consensus aids, and little overall change to the previous forecast was required. Hector is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and within a low shear environment for the next couple of days, and it is possible for some fluctuations in intensity to occur as the result of eyewall replacements. By 48 h, the hurricane is predicted to encounter some drier mid-level air which is forecast to cause gradual weakening after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little above the statistical guidance, closest to the HCCA and FSSE intensity models. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts might occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long time ranges. This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 14.4N 136.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 14.6N 138.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 15.1N 141.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 15.7N 144.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 16.3N 147.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 16.8N 153.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 17.2N 158.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 17.8N 164.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-08-05 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 644 FOPZ15 KNHC 051435 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 26 74(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 140W 50 1 95(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 140W 64 X 78(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 62(64) 20(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 19(19) 24(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 1(53) X(53) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 73(74) 4(78) X(78) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 5(46) X(46) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) X(24) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 24(42) 1(43) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BRADSHAW AAF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 55(70) X(70) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) X(36) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 36(48) 1(49) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 1(30) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 21N 158W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 70(72) 5(77) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 4(44) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 3(24) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 13(33) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 21N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 27(50) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BUOY 51101 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 15N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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