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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2018-08-04 04:34:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 1 72(73) 16(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 135W 50 X 19(19) 27(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) 15N 135W 64 X 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 66(69) 24(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 46(72) X(72) X(72) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 40(50) X(50) X(50) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 65(65) 14(79) X(79) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 17(48) X(48) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) X(29) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 5(52) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 33(61) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRADSHAW AAF 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)

2018-08-04 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HECTOR QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 3 the center of Hector was located near 14.2, -130.9 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 967 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 14

2018-08-04 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 179 WTPZ35 KNHC 040234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 ...HECTOR QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 130.9W ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1640 MI...2640 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 130.9 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening at a slower rate is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 14

2018-08-04 04:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 450 WTPZ25 KNHC 040233 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 130.9W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 130.9W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.3N 132.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.5N 139.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 16.5N 156.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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