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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-04 10:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR MAINTAINING STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 4 the center of Hector was located near 14.3, -131.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 15
2018-08-04 10:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 611 WTPZ35 KNHC 040843 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 ...MAJOR HURRICANE HECTOR MAINTAINING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 131.7W ABOUT 1590 MI...2555 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 131.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion will likely continue for the next several days. On the forecast track, Hector is expected to reach the Central Pacific basin early Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next few days, but Hector is expected to remain at or near major hurricane intensity through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-08-04 10:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 515 WTPZ25 KNHC 040842 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 131.7W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 131.7W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 131.2W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.3N 133.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 135.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.7N 137.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.0N 140.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.0N 145.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.5N 151.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 157.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 131.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-04 04:44:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 02:44:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 02:44:12 GMT
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-08-04 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 283 WTPZ45 KNHC 040235 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018 Hector has continued to quickly strengthen since the last advisory, with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the eyewall cooling to near -80C. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 102 kt near 00Z, and given the increasing organization since that time the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt. The initial motion is now 275/10. There is again little change to the track forecast philosophy, as a large subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer Hector generally westward during the forecast period. Due to a weakness in the ridge, the hurricane is forecast to gain some latitude from 36-96 h. While the guidance agrees with this scenario, there is a significant amount of spread between the GFS and NAVGEM on the north side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET and ECMWF on the south side. The consensus models are in the center of the envelope, and the new forecast is close to these in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus. The new forecast is little changed from the previous track. Recent satellite microwave data show that Hector is developing an outer eyewall, which suggests the hurricane should undergo an eyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so. This makes it a little unclear how long the current intensification will last. The intensity forecast will show a little more strengthening during the next 12 hr followed by little change in strength through 36 h. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models show a little more intensification at 48-60 h, and the official forecast follows suit. After that time, while Hector should remain in a light-shear, warm-water environment, entrainment of drier air should lead to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. Overall, the new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. There is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions of the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could occur. This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 14.2N 130.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 14.3N 132.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 14.2N 134.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 14.5N 139.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 16.5N 156.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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