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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-08-04 22:44:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 558 WTPZ45 KNHC 042044 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 Satellite images indicate that the small eye of Hector has grown larger over the past several hours, with a rapid axisymmetrization of the eyewall convection. It seems that the eyewall cycle has completed itself rather quickly, with one distinct eyewall now noted. Dvorak estimates are on the rise again, and the latest initial wind speed is set to 110 kt, which is a blend of the latest satellite estimates. While there has been no scatterometer data during the past day or so, the microwave data show that Hector has grown in size, so the initial wind radii have been expanded, although are smaller than the latest CIMSS and CSU/CIRA estimates. Hector appears to be in the process of becoming an annular hurricane, with little outer banding and a fairly symmetric inner core. This subset of hurricanes is known to occur under moderate SSTs below 28.5C, with light easterly shear and no trough interactions. The bottom line for the intensity forecast is that these conditions are likely to persist near Hector for the next few days, and intensity guidance is known to have a low bias for annular hurricanes. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, and is near or above the guidance, showing only a slow demise over the central Pacific as environmental conditions gradually deteriorate. Hector continues a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward throughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge. By 96 hours, most of the guidance shows a more due-westward motion south of the Hawaiian Islands. The only significant change from the past advisory is a slightly slower forward speed for the first couple of days. While the official forecast track continues to lie south of the Hawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts might occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long range. This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. For additional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl . FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 14.2N 133.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 14.3N 135.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 14.8N 139.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 15.3N 142.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 16.3N 148.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 17.0N 160.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-04 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 20:42:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Aug 2018 21:25:54 GMT
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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-08-04 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 302 FOPZ15 KNHC 042041 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 135W 50 62 4(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 135W 64 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 140W 34 X 4( 4) 90(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) 72(72) 15(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) 45(45) 20(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 61(83) X(83) X(83) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 50(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 23(58) X(58) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 63(68) 2(70) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) 20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 13(46) 15N 155W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 15N 155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 26(59) 18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 18N 156W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 15(40) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 52(66) BUOY 51002 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) BUOY 51002 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 160W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) BUOY 51003 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BUOY 51003 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-04 22:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Aug 4 the center of Hector was located near 14.2, -133.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 17
2018-08-04 22:40:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 017 WTPZ35 KNHC 042040 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018 ...HECTOR GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 133.7W ABOUT 1460 MI...2355 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of Hector. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 133.7 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Hector will cross into the central Pacific basin early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Hector is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Short-term fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next few days, but Hector is expected to be near major hurricane intensity for the next 2 or 3 days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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