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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 26
2018-09-14 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 626 WTNT34 KNHC 140236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...ISAAC MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 64.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches across the northern Windward Islands into the Leeward islands, and southeastern Puerto Rico. Totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic and Haiti. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are still affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 26
2018-09-14 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 625 WTNT24 KNHC 140236 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.4W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.4W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 71.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 77.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 17.7N 82.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 64.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-09-13 22:44:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 085 WTNT44 KNHC 132044 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 The center of Isaac has been mostly exposed during the past several hours as temporary bursts of convection fire just east of the center. Assuming some spin down of the circulation after the plane left, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. Since there haven't been any reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the Lesser Antilles and the center is moving away, all watches and warning have been lowered. However, there remains a threat of flash flooding due to a large area of rain that has yet to move through the Lesser Antilles. Strong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical depression status on Friday. However, the shear is forecast to weaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea. These conditions would normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. Model guidance has been inconsistent on the future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this situation. The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the official forecast follows that consensus. At this point it is just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each advisory to see if there are any changes. Isaac is moving westward at about 15 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to persist over the southwestern Atlantic, steering Isaac westward for the next few days, with a turn to the west-northwest possible at long range. The future track is very uncertain at long range because it is dependent on the intensity. If Isaac degenerates into a wave, the remnants will likely move south and west of the guidance mean, and if the cyclone is stronger, it will probably move slower and more to the right. The new NHC forecast assumes that Isaac will stay weak, and therefore is on the left and faster side of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 14.9N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 14.9N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 14.9N 68.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 14.9N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.2N 77.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 17.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-13 22:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 20:43:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 21:34:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-09-13 22:42:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 450 FONT14 KNHC 132042 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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