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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 30

2018-09-15 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 137 WTNT34 KNHC 150236 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...ISAAC QUICKLY LOSING ORGANIZATION AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 69.5W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is possible by the end of the weekend, if Isaac has not degenerated into a trough of low pressure by then. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The maximum winds are not expected to change very much during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south- central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and most of Jamaica except for the eastern portion of Jamaica where rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches and maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

2018-09-15 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 133 FONT14 KNHC 150236 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 30

2018-09-15 04:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 032 WTNT24 KNHC 150236 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 69.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 69.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 68.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.5N 71.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.7N 73.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.2N 75.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.7N 77.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.7N 81.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 29

2018-09-14 22:51:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 779 WTNT44 KNHC 142051 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 It has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon. Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the maximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen to about 1002 mb. However, the system is tilted southward with vertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and Hurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is elongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed. Note that the plane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of strong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds showing no circulation were unrepresentative. The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac. Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows. It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see if we gain any confidence. Isaac is moving westward at about 12 kt. A ridge over the southwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the weekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a weaker portion of the ridge. Just like yesterday, a stronger system would likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving closer to Jamaica. Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the forecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and should also be considered low confidence since it depends on the intensity. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the Isaac. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.3N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.4N 70.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.4N 72.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.2N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 17.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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