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Tropical Depression Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 28
2018-09-14 16:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 330 WTNT44 KNHC 141432 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Isaac Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Deep convection has been increasing near the center of Isaac, but visible imagery indicates that the circulation has become more elongated from northeast to southwest. It is possible that Isaac is in the process of losing a well-defined center, but we will know more about the wind structure in a few hours since the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area. The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt. Vertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the western semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection. Still, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the graveyard for nothing, and the system might just be too shallow and disorganized to take advantage of the changing environment. Almost all of the dynamical models, save the UKMET, show the cyclone moving westward to west-northwestward at a slower forward speed during the next few days and degenerating into an open wave in the central Caribbean Sea. This solution is also supported by fewer members of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble now maintaining a coherent system in the long range. Little change is made to the previous track and intensity forecasts, and we will see what the aircraft finds this afternoon and if the 1200 UTC model cycle maintains the dissipation trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 14.9N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.1N 71.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.6N 75.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.0N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-14 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Isaac was located near 14.9, -67.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Isaac Public Advisory Number 28
2018-09-14 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 803 WTNT34 KNHC 141431 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 67.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn to the west-northwest is possible early next week if Isaac survives. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the depression. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south- central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and Jamaica. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2018-09-14 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 705 FONT14 KNHC 141431 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 28
2018-09-14 16:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 549 WTNT24 KNHC 141430 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 67.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 67.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 71.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.6N 75.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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