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Tropical Depression Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 27
2018-09-14 11:12:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 160 WTNT24 KNHC 140911 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CORRECTED TO REMOVE 12-FT SEAS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.2N 69.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N 72.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 73.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Isaac Graphics
2018-09-14 10:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 08:34:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 08:34:02 GMT
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Tropical Depression Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-09-14 10:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 207 WTNT44 KNHC 140832 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Isaac Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Northwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Isaac. Although the system is still producing areas of deep convection, an ASCAT overpass that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory, indicated that the circulation had become even less defined. The ASCAT data also showed that the winds are below tropical storm strength, therefore the initial intensity has been reduced to 30 kt. Moderate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause additional weakening, and Isaac is forecast to degenerate into an open wave within the next several days, but this could occur much sooner if the current trends continue. When the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea the shear may relax somewhat and moisture levels are expected to be higher. These conditions could allow for regeneration of the system, but the ECMWF and GFS both show Issac weakening and moving over the western Caribbean as an open wave, and the NHC forecast follows this scenario. A low- to mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic continues to steer Isaac westward, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occur. The new track forecast is once again essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.0N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.2N 69.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.2N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.4N 73.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2018-09-14 10:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 238 FONT14 KNHC 140832 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-14 10:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Isaac was located near 15.0, -65.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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