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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE Public Advisory Number 1
2017-06-19 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192046 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 88.7W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City to High Island, Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Intracoastal City to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.7 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance will move toward the Louisiana coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-06-19 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192046 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO HIGH ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 88.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 88.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.0N 89.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 90.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.9N 91.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.7N 92.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 35.5N 90.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 88.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Graphics
2017-06-19 20:00:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 18:00:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 15:22:02 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022017)
2017-06-19 19:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT IS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Jun 19 the center of Two was located near 8.8, -57.8 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Graphics
2017-06-19 17:03:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 15:03:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 15:22:02 GMT
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