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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 2A
2017-06-20 07:52:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 100 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE WOBBLES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 89.9W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Intracoastal City to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 89.9 West. The system is moving generally toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest should occur by Tuesday morning, and that motion is expected to continue into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to be near the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Wednesday evening. STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2017-06-20 05:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 03:42:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 03:42:21 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2017-06-20 04:53:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 02:53:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 02:53:24 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-06-20 04:40:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200240 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the central Gulf of Mexico disturbance found that the multiple swirls that this system possessed had consolidated into a single low-level circulation center with a pressure of about 1000 mb. However, since the circulation was and still is elongated north-to-south, the large low pressure system is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory cycle. The NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central Gulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. After stalling this afternoon due to re-organization of the system's center, the low now appears to be moving 330/07 kt based on recent conventional and microwave satellite fixes. The new forecast track has been shifted to the west of the previous advisory track through 48 hours, mainly due to the more westward initial position. Otherwise, no other significant changes were made to the previous forecast track. The low is expected to move generally northwestward through 48 hours around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and Florida. After that, the system is forecast to turn northward around the ridge axis, moving into the south-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the consensus model TVCA. Given the still disorganized nature of the circulation, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on reconnaissance wind data and observations from nearby ships 3ETA7 and 3FZO8. Only slight strengthening is expected for the next 36 hours or so due to moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease to 20 kt or less, but the system will already be close to land at that time and probably not be able to take advantage of the lower shear conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the intensity consensus model IVCN. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 24.4N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1200Z 25.4N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 28.3N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 31.8N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0000Z 35.2N 90.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2017-06-20 04:38:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 200238 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0300 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BURAS LA 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 5 12(17) 2(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 910W 34 2 34(36) 13(49) 3(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 8(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 8(24) 1(25) X(25) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) 7(26) 1(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 11(11) 19(30) 11(41) 5(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 11(26) 1(27) X(27) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 12(21) 10(31) 1(32) X(32) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 10(20) X(20) X(20) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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