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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-06-19 17:00:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191500 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 The convective pattern of the disturbance has become better organized this morning with a ragged band that wraps more than half way around its center. The intensity is assessed at 35 kt based upon the Dvorak 2.5 CI number from TAFB. These winds are likely only occurring in the northern semicircle due to the very quick translational velocity of the system. Intensity model guidance is in good agreement that the environmental conditions may allow for some slight intensification in the next day or so with the system embedded within low vertical shear and an atmosphere that is marginally moist and unstable. Beginning in about 36 hours, however, the shear should go up to either moderate (if the GFS is correct) or high (if the ECMWF is correct) levels because of an approaching tropical upper- tropospheric trough. Because of this increasing shear, all guidance shows the system dissipating before 72 hr and so does the official forecast. An alternative scenario - given that the disturbance has tracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus far - is that it could remain south of guidance and dissipate over Venezuela and never reach the Caribbean Sea. The quick motion also makes it ambiguous as to whether the system has a closed, earth-relative circulation center. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system later today to help in this determination. It is still anticipated that the system will become a tropical storm, but it may be running out of time if it interacts significantly with Venezuela. The system is moving toward the west at a very rapid 22 kt due to the fast low to mid-level tradewinds south of a strong Bermuda high. It is likely that a rapid motion toward the west or west-northwest will continue until dissipation. The official track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is slightly south compared with the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 8.8N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/0000Z 9.5N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 20/1200Z 10.6N 63.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 11.7N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 12.6N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-06-19 16:58:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 191458 PWSAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022017 1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 4 25(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) PORT OF SPAIN 34 3 56(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X 23(23) 16(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) JUANGRIEGO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (AT2/AL022017)
2017-06-19 16:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON DISTURBANCE ISSUED FOR VENEZUELA... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Jun 19 the center of Two was located near 8.8, -56.8 with movement W at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory Number 4
2017-06-19 16:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017 ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON DISTURBANCE ISSUED FOR VENEZUELA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.8N 56.8W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF TRINIDAD ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for that country. The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bonaire. The government of Aruba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that country. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad * Tobago * Grenada * Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bonaire * Aruba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 8.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. The system is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h). A fast motion toward the west-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands and near the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves through the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight and Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to show signs of organization, and additional development is likely during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach portions of the warning area tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern Venezuela Monday night and Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-06-19 16:56:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191456 TCMAT2 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022017 1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THAT COUNTRY. THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA INCLUDING ISLA DE MARGARITA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BONAIRE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ARUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THAT COUNTRY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TRINIDAD * TOBAGO * GRENADA * VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA INCLUDING ISLA DE MARGARITA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BONAIRE * ARUBA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 56.8W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 56.8W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 9.5N 59.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 10.6N 63.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 11.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.6N 70.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.8N 56.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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