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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 3A
2017-06-20 13:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 201138 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 700 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 90.3W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Cameron to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 90.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Satellite imagery shows that the center of the disturbance is gradually become better defined, and it is likely that the system will become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1000.6 mb (29.54 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning. STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Final Kepler Report Includes 219 New Potential Exoplanets
2017-06-20 13:30:25| Extremetech
A new planetary catalog unveiled by astronomers during a recent meeting at the Ames Research Center signifies the final chapter of Kepler. Its grand total: 4,034 objects. The post Final Kepler Report Includes 219 New Potential Exoplanets appeared first on ExtremeTech.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2017-06-20 10:58:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 08:58:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 09:29:24 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-06-20 10:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200852 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 Nighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation associated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. However, the system is struggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and the radius of maximum winds remains large. Based on this, the system is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone. The low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and Florida. The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen some during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a little more westward. This would be followed by a northward turn around the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into the westerlies. Overall, there has been a left shift of the track guidance models since the previous advisory. The new forecast track is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model consensus, especially at 36-48 h. Given the nature of the circulation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer overpasses and continuity from the previous advisory. Significant strengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and entrainment of dry air into the system. However, the large-scale models suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. One change from the previous advisory is that it now appears more likely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a tropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and interaction with the aforementioned trough. That being said, development into a tropical cyclone remains possible. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 24.8N 90.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-20 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 the center of Three was located near 24.8, -90.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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