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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-20 04:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 the center of Three was located near 24.4, -89.5 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 2
2017-06-20 04:38:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 89.5W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Intracoastal City to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest should occur by Tuesday morning, and that motion is expected to continue into Wednesday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to be near the Louisiana coast on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Tuesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Wednesday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 2
2017-06-20 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200237 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0300 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO HIGH ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 89.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 89.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 89.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.4N 90.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.4N 91.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.3N 92.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.8N 93.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 35.2N 90.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 89.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2017-06-20 02:15:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 00:15:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 21:29:57 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-20 01:48:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 the center of Three was located near 24.0, -89.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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