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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 3
2017-06-20 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200851 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 90.1W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Cameron, Louisiana to Intracoastal City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Cameron to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion should continue through Wednesday, with a turn toward the north expected Wednesday night or Thursday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to be near the Louisiana coast late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). NOAA buoy 42001 just reported a pressure of 1001.7 mb (29.58 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into southeast Texas through Thursday morning. STORM SURGE: Inundations of 1 to 3 feet are possible along the coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible this afternoon and tonight from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-06-20 10:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 200851 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0900 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 6 5(11) 1(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 7 32(39) 7(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 23(24) 23(47) 7(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 12(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 16(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 12(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 10(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 11(22) 6(28) 1(29) X(29) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 3
2017-06-20 10:51:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200850 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 0900 UTC TUE JUN 20 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM CAMERON LOUISIANA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF CAMERON TO HIGH ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 90.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 90.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 89.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.7N 91.0W...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.6N 92.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.5N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.9N 93.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...160NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.5N 93.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 36.5N 88.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 90.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2017-06-20 07:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 05:53:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jun 2017 03:42:21 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-20 07:52:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE WOBBLES WESTWARD... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 the center of Three was located near 24.5, -89.9 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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