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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-06-20 01:48:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 192348 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 ...DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 89.2W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Intracoastal City to High Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 89.2 West. The system has been stationary during the past few hours. However, a motion toward the north-northwest is expected to resume later tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance will move toward the Louisiana coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches the coast. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some additional development of this system during the next day or two, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from reconnaissance aircraft and nearby ships is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Wednesday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE Graphics
2017-06-19 22:51:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 20:51:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Jun 2017 21:29:57 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-06-19 22:47:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192047 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017 A pair of ASCAT passes between 15 and 16Z showed that the disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico has an area of tropical-storm- force winds within a large area of deep convection 100 to 150 n mi northeast of a broad low center. The ASCAT data and visible satellite imagery show that the center is not well defined, and in fact multiple low-level swirls are evident in the latest imagery. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system and will provide more data on its wind structure. The NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not possible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central Gulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data. The initial pressure is set to 1002 mb based on extrapolated data from the aircraft. Only modest strengthening is expected given the moderate to strong southwesterly shear of around 30 kt expected to persist over the system during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus aid. Given the broad nature of the low, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 350/08. During the first 12 to 24 hours the system will move northward to north-northwestward due to the a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf and then the system should slow and turn more northwestward as it interacts with an upper-level low currently situated off the Texas coast. The details of this interaction will have significant implications on the track of the system, and there remains a fair amount of model spread. The HWRF is on the right side of the guidance envelope, with a track toward southeastern Louisiana while the UKMET and ECMWF show a solution toward southwest Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas. For now, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and a little left of the TCVA consensus aid. Given the disorganized nature of the circulation and the fact that the wind and rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast. The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 24.7N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/0600Z 26.0N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 27.2N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 21/0600Z 27.9N 91.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.7N 92.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 32.0N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1800Z 35.5N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-06-19 22:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 192046 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032017 2100 UTC MON JUN 19 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) STENNIS MS 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) BURAS LA 34 1 18(19) 9(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 890W 34 16 37(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 9(10) 10(20) 3(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 44(45) 14(59) 2(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 11(11) 15(26) 7(33) 4(37) 1(38) X(38) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 11(19) 1(20) X(20) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 10(24) 7(31) 1(32) X(32) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 10(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 7(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 12(21) 1(22) X(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 11(28) 1(29) X(29) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 10(31) 1(32) X(32) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 11(20) 1(21) X(21) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 1(26) X(26) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) HOUSTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 8(21) 1(22) X(22) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE (AT3/AL032017)
2017-06-19 22:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 the center of THREE was located near 24.7, -88.7 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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