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Post-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 42
2017-08-01 22:37:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 012037 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 129.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 129.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 129.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.0N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 129.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Irwin Graphics
2017-08-01 17:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 15:40:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 15:40:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 41
2017-08-01 16:40:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 011440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Irwin Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 Irwin basically consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. Dvorak numbers have continued to decrease, and assuming that winds have diminished since the last ASCAT pass about 8 hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt. The cyclone is already moving over cold waters of about 22 deg C. On this basis, weakening should continue, and Irwin is anticipated to become a remnant low this afternoon. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 25.9N 129.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/0000Z 29.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2017-08-01 16:39:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 011439 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-08-01 16:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Irwin was located near 25.9, -129.2 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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