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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 35
2017-07-31 04:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 310233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 126.2W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 125.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N 127.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 128.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.6N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.9N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 126.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Graphics
2017-07-30 22:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 20:36:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Jul 2017 20:36:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 34
2017-07-30 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 302031 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017 Although the mid-level eye feature is no longer evident in satellite images, the compact circulation of Irwin is still fairly well organized. The convective pattern consists of a central dense overcast with fragmented curved bands mostly to the south of the center. The Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held at that value. Irwin has now crossed the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will be headed for even cooler waters during the next few days. In addition, a large area of stratocumulus clouds are wrapping into the western and southern portions of the circulation, indicative of stable air beginning to affect the system. These unfavorable environmental conditions should lead to steady weakening and ultimately cause Irwin to degenerate into a remnant low in about 36 hours, or possibly sooner. The remnant low is now expected to dissipate by day 4, following the global model guidance. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with the bulk of the guidance. Irwin is moving north-northwestward, or 335 degrees, at 8 kt embedded in the flow in the wake of Hilary. This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. Once Irwin becomes a remnant low, the shallow system is expected to turn a little to the left and slow down when it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and it lies close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 18.5N 125.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 20.3N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 22.6N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 24.7N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 26.4N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z 28.1N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm IRWIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2017-07-30 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 302031 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC SUN JUL 30 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm IRWIN (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-30 22:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN HOLDING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 the center of IRWIN was located near 18.5, -125.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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