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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-08-01 10:46:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Irwin was located near 24.9, -128.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 40
2017-08-01 10:46:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 010846 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017 ...IRWIN EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 128.8W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 128.8 West. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A slower motion toward the northwest should begin later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Irwin is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-08-01 04:43:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 02:43:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Aug 2017 03:30:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-08-01 04:41:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 010241 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Irwin isn't quite dead yet, with a new burst of convection in the eastern semicircle, despite the storm being over sub-23C waters. Intensity estimates are unchanged, so the winds are kept at 40 kt. This burst should be short lived, and Irwin is forecast to lose all remaining deep convection tomorrow over sub-22C waters. The cyclone is expected to gradually spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains the same as the last advisory, following the model consensus. Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a mid-level high following behind the remnants of Hilary. This motion is expected to continue for about another day, with Irwin predicted to turn northwestward and slow down as the cyclone becomes shallow. There is no significant change to the guidance, and the official forecast is very close to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 23.8N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 25.3N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 26.8N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 29.1N 132.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2017-08-01 04:40:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 010240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 11 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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