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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-08-01 04:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Irwin was located near 23.8, -128.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 39
2017-08-01 04:40:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 010240 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...IRWIN STILL HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 128.3W ABOUT 1165 MI...1880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 128.3 West. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A slower motion toward the northwest should begin late on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Irwin is forecast to gradually weaken and degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 39
2017-08-01 04:39:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 010239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 01 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 128.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 128.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 128.1W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.3N 129.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.0N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.1N 132.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 128.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-07-31 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 312033 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 The deep convection associated with Irwin has been decreasing throughout the day, and it is currently limited to a fairly small area near and to the east of the center. The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and an average of the latest intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed to 40 kt. Satellite data show that dry and stable air is wrapping into the circulation. This stable air mass combined with cool SSTs should lead to additional weakening, and Irwin will likely become a remnant low tonight or on Tuesday. The remnant low is expected to continue to spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and it follows the trend of the guidance. Irwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a mid-level high following the path of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary. This motion is expected to continue for about another day. Thereafter, a decrease in forward speed and a slight turn to the northwest is predicted as the shallow remnant low moves in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 22.7N 127.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 24.2N 128.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 26.1N 129.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0600Z 27.4N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1800Z 28.5N 132.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2017-07-31 22:32:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 312032 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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