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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37

2017-07-31 16:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 311432 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-31 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 the center of Irwin was located near 21.9, -127.3 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 37

2017-07-31 16:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 311432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...IRWIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 127.3W ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 127.3 West. Irwin is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the northwest should begin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Irwin is expected to continue weakening, and it is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 37

2017-07-31 16:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 311431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 127.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 127.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.6N 128.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.6N 129.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.2N 130.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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