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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 30
2017-07-29 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 292032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 2100 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 124.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.7N 124.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 27.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-29 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 14:37:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 14:37:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 29
2017-07-29 16:34:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 291434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Irwin's cloud pattern has not changed much since yesterday. It consists of a low-level center just to the north of a cyclonically curved convective band in the southern semicircle. An average of the Dvorak intensity estimates supports a 50-kt tropical cyclone. The circulation is still over warm waters and Irwin could maintain the same intensity for another 12 hours or so. After that time, the cyclone will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in gradual weakening. Models still disagree if Hilary and Irwin will merge as forecast by the GFS, or if both systems will dissipate nearby over cool waters as suggested by the ECMWF. The NHC forecast opts for the ECMWF proposal, but regardless of the solution, both system are anticipated to be weak remnant lows or may have even dissipated by then. Today, I found Irwin basically in the same spot I left it yesterday. It was anticipated that the cyclone was going to be meandering for a while within very weak steering currents, but it appears that this is about to change soon. Irwin will be influenced by the southerly flow in the wake of Hilary, and the cyclone should begin to move northward and northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 12 hours and beyond. The track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCX and TVCN which have been the models with the highest skill in forecasting Irwin so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.1N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 16.2N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 125.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 20.1N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 22.3N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 26.0N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 27.5N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2017-07-29 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 291433 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 38 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)
2017-07-29 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IRWIN HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 the center of Irwin was located near 15.1, -124.9 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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