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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics

2017-07-28 16:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 14:41:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Jul 2017 15:30:17 GMT

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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 25

2017-07-28 16:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281437 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 Irwin's structure has not changed significantly during the past several hours, and deep convection near the center has been blossoming intermittently. Dvorak T-numbers have also been fluctuating, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 50 kt. SHIPS model data indicate some shear over the cyclone but not strong enough to disrupt the cloud pattern. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for only small fluctuations in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to reach cooler waters and weakening should begin. This process will continue until Irwin and Hilary merge in about 96 hours or sooner. Irwin is embedded in light steering currents, and the cyclone has barely moved during the past few hours. Little motion is anticipated today or early Saturday, but after that time, Irwin should be steered northward and northwestward by the southerly flow in the wake of Hilary. Track guidance is in good agreement that little motion will occur during the next day or so. There is a big difference in both direction and speed among models beyond 3 days with the northernmost GFS and the southernmost ECMWF marking the edges of the broad guidance envelope. However, by then, Irwin and Hilary should have already merged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 14.8N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 14.8N 125.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 15.2N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 16.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z...Merge with Hilary $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-28 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN AIN'T GOING ANYWHERE SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 the center of Irwin was located near 14.8, -125.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 25

2017-07-28 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 281436 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017 ...IRWIN AIN'T GOING ANYWHERE SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 125.3W ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 125.3 West. Irwin is nearly stationary, and little motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so. A slow northward motion should begin late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today and tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

2017-07-28 16:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 281436 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 26 14(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 125W 64 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 18(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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