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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-28 04:50:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN MEANDERING OVER THE PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of Irwin was located near 14.9, -124.6 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 23

2017-07-28 04:50:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280250 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 ...IRWIN MEANDERING OVER THE PACIFIC WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 124.6W ABOUT 1105 MI...1780 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 124.6 West. Irwin is drifting westward near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 23

2017-07-28 04:49:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280249 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0300 UTC FRI JUL 28 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.6W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.6W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.8N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.8N 125.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.0N 125.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.4N 124.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH TROPICAL STORM HILARY REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 22

2017-07-27 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272039 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 There has been no change in the structure of Irwin. The cyclone continues to be sheared with the center intermittently located in and out of the convection. Dvorak numbers remain unchanged, consequently, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt in this advisory. The environment is neither hostile nor favorable for a significant change in strength for the next 48 hours, so only small fluctuations in intensity are anticipated during that period. Thereafter, steady weakening should begin as Irwin's circulation encounters cooler waters. By day four, Irwin should have merged with Hilary. This continues to be the solution provided by the ECMWF and GFS global models, and it is indicated in the NHC forecast. Steering currents are very weak and Irwin is basically meandering westward. No significant motion is forecast until Hilary passes to the north in about 2 days. By then, Irwin is expected to begin moving northward a little bit faster steered by the southerly flow in the wake of Hilary. Guidance is consistent with the very slow motion during the next day or so, and most of the models clearly capture the faster northward motion around Hilary later in the period. The NHC forecast, primarily beyond 2 days, follows the multi-model consensus, and is in between the faster ECMWF and the slower GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 14.9N 124.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 14.7N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 14.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 19.0N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 31/1800Z...Merged with Hilary $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Tropical Storm Irwin (EP5/EP102017)

2017-07-27 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...IRWIN DRIFTING WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of Irwin was located near 14.9, -124.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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