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Tropical Storm Irwin Public Advisory Number 29
2017-07-29 16:33:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 291433 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 ...IRWIN HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 124.9W ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 124.9 West. Irwin appears to be moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today, but a gradual weakening should begin on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Advisory Number 29
2017-07-29 16:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 291432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 1500 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 124.9W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 124.9W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.2N 125.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.8N 125.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.1N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.3N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Irwin Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-07-29 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290858 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102017 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017 Convection associated with Irwin has changed little over the past several hours, with weak convection in ragged bands occurring primarily in the southeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have also changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt. Some strengthening is possible today while the storm remains over warm sea surface temperatures. After that, Irwin should weaken over waters that cool to near 23C near the 96 h forecast position. As mentioned in the discussion for Tropical Storm Hilary, the model guidance is diverse as to the eventual fate of Irwin as it interacts with Hilary, with the possibilities ranging from the early merger shown by the Canadian model to the ECMWF scenario of the two systems dissipating separately but in close proximity. The forecast leans more to the ECMWF solution and shows Irwin dissipating after 96 h to the north of Hilary or its remnants. Irwin is currently nearly stationary. A northward motion is expected to begin later today. Then, as the cyclone moves around the eastern and northern side of Hilary, a turn toward the north-northwest is expected in about 36 h, followed by a northwestward motion near the end of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 48 h, and it is shifted westward after that in agreement with the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.9N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 17.1N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 19.2N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 21.7N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 25.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Irwin Graphics
2017-07-29 10:47:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 08:47:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Jul 2017 08:47:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm Irwin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2017-07-29 10:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 290843 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 125W 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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