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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2020-11-15 21:36:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 152036 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 13(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 49(51) 39(90) 3(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 14(14) 56(70) 6(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X 7( 7) 43(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BLUEFIELDS 34 2 2( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) BLUEFIELDS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 20 41(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) SAN ANDRES 50 3 10(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN ANDRES 64 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LIMON 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLON 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Hurricane Iota (AT1/AL312020)

2020-11-15 21:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 PM EST Sun Nov 15 the center of Iota was located near 13.3, -79.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 10

2020-11-15 21:36:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 152036 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...RAPID STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS IOTA APPROACHES NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 79.3W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 79.3 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over Providencia island late tonight or Monday, and approach the coasts of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Monday, and make landfall within the hurricane warning area Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Iota is forecast to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches Central America. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Friday morning: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm). Northern Colombia: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches (300 mm). WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras area beginning late Monday with tropical storm conditions beginning Monday morning. Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia overnight with tropical storm conditions expected beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres this evening with hurricane conditions possible there early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-11-15 21:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 152036 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 79.3W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 79.3W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 78.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.6N 80.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 82.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.4N 84.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.1N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 79.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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