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Hurricane Iota Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-15 15:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 151436 TCDAT1 Hurricane Iota Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 Iota continues to rapidly strengthen. The hurricane has an impressive appearance in visible satellite imagery with a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast and excellent banding features in all quadrants. The outflow has become well established and recent microwave satellite imagery has shown a 37-GHz eye feature and a mid-level eye that was not quite closed. A TAFB Dvorak classification of T4.5 was the basis for the 75-kt 1200 UTC analyzed intensity, and with the continued improvement in structure the advisory wind speed is set at 80 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm. Iota is located within an extremely conducive environment for strengthening. The upper-level wind pattern is forecast to remain quite favorable while the storm crosses sea surface temperatures of 28.5-29 degrees C. As a result, continued rapid strengthening is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Iota is forecast to become a potentially catastrophic category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or eastern Honduras. A difficult-to-predict eyewall replacement cycle could cause the intensity to begin to level off when Iota nears the coast. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for continued rapid strengthening and is in good agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus models. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur as Iota moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America. The hurricane has begun moving faster toward the west-northwest, with a long-term motion estimate of 285/8 kt. The steering currents ahead of Iota are well established as a strong mid-level ridge is located over the western Atlantic and Florida. This should keep Iota on a westward to west-northwestward heading through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward track is anticipated. The global models are in good agreement on this scenario and the updated NHC track forecast is only adjusted a little north of the previous track to be closer to the latest multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to continue to rapidly intensify and be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America on Monday. Potentially catastrophic winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected along portions of the coast of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras where a hurricane warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia tonight and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by this evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 13.3N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-11-15 15:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 151436 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS ...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) X(20) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GUANAJA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 14(24) 11(35) 3(38) X(38) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 3 15(18) 57(75) 11(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 3( 3) 37(40) 20(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) 22(22) 14(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) BLUEFIELDS 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 5 27(32) 8(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) SAN ANDRES 50 3 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAN ANDRES 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LIMON 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) COLON 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-11-15 15:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151435 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 75SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.8N 79.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 82.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.4N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.8N 89.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 78.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Iota Graphics
2020-11-15 12:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 11:47:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 09:31:43 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-15 12:47:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS, A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS TO CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 7:00 AM EST Sun Nov 15 the center of Iota was located near 13.2, -77.8 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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