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Hurricane Iota Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-11-15 09:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150841 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO BLUEFIELDS * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 77.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 77.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.4N 78.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.7N 80.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N 81.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.3N 83.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.3N 84.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.2N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.9N 88.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 77.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Iota Graphics

2020-11-15 06:55:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 05:55:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 03:31:40 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Iota (AT1/AL312020)

2020-11-15 06:55:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE THIRTEENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... ...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA.... As of 1:00 AM EST Sun Nov 15 the center of Iota was located near 13.0, -77.0 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Iota Public Advisory Number 7A

2020-11-15 06:55:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150555 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 100 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE THIRTEENTH HURRICANE OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... ...IOTA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA.... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 77.0W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 77.0 West. Iota is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general westward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea today, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday evening. Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The latest data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with hurricane conditions possible there Sunday night or early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late Monday and in the warning area in Honduras by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 13 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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