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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141457 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 76.2W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm warning for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * Providencia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of these countries. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 76.2 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-14 09:40:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 08:40:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 08:40:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140839 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data received since the last advisory indicate that Iota is a bit disorganized. The deep convection is currently not concentrated near the center, and the scatterometer wind data showed an elongated circulation with a trough extending west-southwestward from the center. The scatterometer data also showed maximum winds of 30-35 kt in the northeastern quadrant, and based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota at around 18Z. Iota continues to move south of west with the initial motion of 245/4 kt. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico should build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward at a somewhat faster forward speed through 72 h. This motion is expected to bring the center near or over the coasts of Nicaragua or Honduras near the 72-h point. After that time, a west-southwestward motion is forecast, with the center of the cyclone moving across portions of Central America. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly slower than, the previous forecast, and it lies in the center of the guidance envelope near the various consensus models. Iota is currently experiencing light westerly wind shear produced by an upper-level trough to the west. The shear should subside over the next 12-24 h as the trough moves westward and dissipates, leaving the cyclone in more favorable upper-level winds and over sea surface temperatures near 29C. Thus, conditions appear conducive for steady to rapid intensification once the storm becomes well enough organized internally to take advantage of the favorable environment. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification to major hurricane intensity, with a peak intensity of near 105 kt as the system makes landfall in Central America. It should be noted that the HWRF and HMON forecast the center to go north of the official forecast track and keep it over water north of Honduras. As a result, they forecast a stronger cyclone than indciated by the official forecast. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.5N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-14 09:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 4:00 AM EST Sat Nov 14 the center of Iota was located near 13.5, -74.8 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140838 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.5N 74.8W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of these countries. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and Iota is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm). SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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