je.st

Home › iota

Tag: iota

Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-11-15 03:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150232 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Iota continues to strengthen. Deep convection has been increasing in coverage and intensity near the center, and microwave images indicate that the inner core is becoming better defined. The Dvorak classifications at 00Z supported an intensity of 55 kt, and since the thunderstorms continue to organize, the initial wind speed is set a little higher to 60 kt. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Iota overnight. Iota has slowed a little and has now turned westward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/4 kt. A ridge over Florida and the western Atlantic is expected to remain to the north of Iota. This high pressure system, and another ridge over Mexico and the western Gulf, should steer the storm westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days and then westward to west-southwestward after that. This motion should take the core of Iota to the coast of Nicaragua Monday night. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear quite favorable for Iota to continue strengthening until it reaches the coast in a little more than 2 days. Since the storm appears to be developing an inner core, rapid strengthening during the next couple of days seems likely. All of the intensity models show a significant amount of strengthening before landfall, and are higher than the previous cycle. Based on the latest guidance and favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above the previous one and shows Iota becoming a hurricane soon and a major hurricane in 36 hours. After Iota moves inland, rapid weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves over the rugged terrain of Nicaragua and southern Honduras. The NHC forecast lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to intensify and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras, and hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected there beginning Monday. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected and storm surge impacts are possible on Providencia beginning late Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible by Sunday evening on San Andres. 3. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 12.7N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 12.9N 77.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 13.3N 79.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 13.7N 81.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 14.0N 82.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 14.1N 84.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 14.0N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 13.6N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)

2020-11-15 03:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IOTA ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... As of 10:00 PM EST Sat Nov 14 the center of Iota was located near 12.7, -77.0 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical iota

Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)

2020-11-15 00:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 7:00 PM EST Sat Nov 14 the center of Iota was located near 12.6, -76.9 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tags: summary storm tropical iota

Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 6A

2020-11-15 00:31:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142331 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 700 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 76.9W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.9 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin very soon and continue through Monday night. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight and Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with hurricane conditions possible there Sunday night or early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number public storm advisory