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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 6
2020-11-14 21:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 142054 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 76.5W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Warning for the island of Providencia, and a Hurricane Watch for the island of San Andres. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Providencia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * San Andres A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin very soon and continue through Monday night. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea tonight and Sunday, pass near or over Providencia island on Monday and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras Monday afternoon or evening. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected on the island of Providencia by late Sunday night with tropical storm conditions expected beginning Sunday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the island of San Andres late Sunday or Sunday night with hurricane conditions possible Sunday night or early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-11-14 21:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 142054 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF SAN ANDRES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PROVIDENCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO SANDY BAY SIRPI * THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA TO PUNTA CASTILLA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 76.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 76.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-14 18:59:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 17:59:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 15:31:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-14 18:58:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PROVIDENCIA ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... As of 1:00 PM EST Sat Nov 14 the center of Iota was located near 12.6, -76.4 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-11-14 18:58:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141758 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 100 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IOTA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PROVIDENCIA ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 76.4W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Watch from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border. The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Patuca. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla. The government of Colombia has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island of Providencia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi * The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Providencia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * Providencia A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta Castilla A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 76.4 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the southwest Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Warning area by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Providencia by Sunday night or early Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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