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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-04 11:00:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Sep 2017 09:00:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Sep 2017 09:25:08 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-09-04 10:54:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 040854 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 Irma's signature in infrared satellite images has been improving over the past few hours. An eye has appeared and is warming, and the central dense overcast has become more symmetric. Although the satellite presentation is better than when a NOAA plane investigated Irma last evening, the initial intensity will be held at 100 kt for now. Another NOAA P3 aircraft is just now beginning to sample the hurricane and should provide an updated intensity estimate during the next few hours. A strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central Atlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the initial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt. Irma will begin rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west- northwestward in 36-48 hours. Down the road, a large mid-latitude trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward toward Florida. As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this cycle during that period. Remarkably, the track models are very tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast. All environmental factors suggest that Irma will at least maintain its intensity for the entire 5-day forecast period, if not strengthen gradually. Oceanic heat content values increase along Irma's forecast path, mid-level moisture will be more abundant, and vertical shear appears to be generally low. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for gradual intensification through at least 72 hours, with a possibility for some slight weakening by days 4 and 5 (but still as a major hurricane). As with any major hurricane, Irma's intensity may fluctuate around these forecast intensities, but the overall trend is for a gradual increase of the maximum winds, assuming Irma's core does not move over any of the islands in the Greater Antilles. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. In addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands within a couple of days as a major hurricane, accompanied by dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands, and additional hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be issued later today. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Cuba. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be issued for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. 3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 16.9N 52.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 16.7N 53.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 16.6N 56.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 17.8N 61.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 19.6N 66.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 21.0N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 22.0N 76.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-04 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 4 the center of Irma was located near 16.9, -52.3 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-09-04 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 040854 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0900 UTC MON SEP 04 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 42(56) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 31(50) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) 22(73) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 65(69) 9(78) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 9(54) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 7(36) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 24(40) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 7(30) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 54(61) 4(65) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 28(41) 2(43) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 50(51) 5(56) X(56) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 4(31) X(31) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 3(18) X(18) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 8(61) X(61) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 7(37) X(37) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 65(67) 3(70) X(70) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 3(45) X(45) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 62(66) 2(68) X(68) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 1(44) X(44) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 1(26) X(26) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 72(77) 2(79) X(79) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) X(53) X(53) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 56(61) X(61) X(61) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 50(89) X(89) X(89) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 55(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 44(47) X(47) X(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 28(73) X(73) X(73) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 30(45) X(45) X(45) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) X(27) X(27) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 73(79) 11(90) X(90) X(90) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 23(71) X(71) X(71) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 22(50) X(50) X(50) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 62(67) 11(78) X(78) X(78) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 14(50) X(50) X(50) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 12(31) X(31) X(31) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 20
2017-09-04 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 040854 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 52.3W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 52.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move closer to the Leeward Islands through Tuesday and then be near the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will begin affecting the northern Leeward Islands today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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