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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 21
2017-09-04 16:47:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041447 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin Islands. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Guadeloupe. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * British Virgin Islands * U.S. Virgin Islands * Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Irma. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 53.3 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches across the Leeward Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward Islands during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 21
2017-09-04 16:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 041446 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GUADELOUPE. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS * SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.3W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 150SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 53.3W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 52.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.3N 59.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 62.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N 68.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 77.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 53.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-04 13:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Sep 2017 11:50:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Sep 2017 09:25:08 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-04 13:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IRMA A LITTLE STRONGER... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 4 the center of Irma was located near 16.8, -52.6 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 20A
2017-09-04 13:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041148 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 800 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS IRMA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 52.6W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later this morning or this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 52.6 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a west-northwestward turn late Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move closer to the Leeward Islands through Tuesday and then be near the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday night. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast through Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data received by the reconnaissance aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Irma will begin affecting the northern Leeward Islands today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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