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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-12 13:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 11:43:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 09:04:35 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-12 13:43:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NICOLE... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Oct 12 the center of NICOLE was located near 28.0, -66.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane NICOLE Public Advisory Number 33A
2016-10-12 13:43:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 121142 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 800 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NICOLE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 66.9W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the large and distinct eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 66.9 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), but a turn toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. An additional increase in forward speed with a turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will near Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 36 hours, and Nicole could be near major hurricane strength later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 969 mb (28.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-12 11:04:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 08:38:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Oct 2016 09:04:35 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-10-12 10:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 120836 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 Nicole's cloud pattern on satellite continues to be very impressive with a large eye surrounded by deep convection and a good upper- level outflow in all quadrants. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 4.5/77 kt, but objective numbers from UW-CIMMS are up to 5.7 on the Dvorak scale. The initial intensity is then set to 85 kt, based on a blend of these estimates. An Air Force plane will be in the eye of Nicole around 1200 UTC this morning, and will provide an intensity update. Environmental conditions are conducive for some additional strengthening in the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be at its peak in intensity while it moves near Bermuda. After 36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase significantly resulting in some weakening. Nicole should then become a post-tropical cyclone by 96 hours. Most of the global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will maintain winds of near hurricane strength, and so does the NHC forecast. Satellite fixes indicate that Nicole is moving toward the north- northwest or 340 degrees at 6 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and in the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will become embedded in the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This pattern should force Nicole to turn to the north-northeast and then east with a gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous one primarily during the next 24 to 36 hours, bringing the core of Nicole very near or over Bermuda. The forecast track is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 27.9N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.9N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 30.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 32.6N 64.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 35.0N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 39.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/0600Z 40.0N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Avila
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