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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-10-24 23:06:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 242106 CCA TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 CORRECTED STATUS AT 29/1800Z THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 111.3W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 111.3W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N 118.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.7N 122.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 22.3N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 111.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-24 23:06:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Oct 2016 20:40:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Oct 2016 21:03:36 GMT
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-10-24 23:05:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 242104 CCA TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 CORRECTED 120H STATUS Seymour is rapidly intensifying. A pinhole eye has formed within a small, nearly symmetric, central dense overcast (CDO) during the last several hours. In addition, a long curved band coils inward toward the center with a dry slot between it and the CDO. Dvorak classifications are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is T4.7/82 kt. A blend of these is used to raise the initial intensity estimate to 80 kt. Seymour has another 24 hours to strengthen under nearly ideal environmental conditions, consisting of low vertical wind shear, warm waters, strong upper-level divergence, and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. By 36 to 48 hours, an uptick in the southwesterly vertical shear associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough approaching Seymour from the northwest should induce a weakening trend. With the waters cooling substantially and the shear becoming prohibitively high after that time, rapid weakening is likely. Seymour is now forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96 hours, if not perhaps sooner, as depicted in global model guidance. The new intensity forecast is generally above the the guidance through 48 hours, closest to the FSU Superensemble and NOAA Corrected Consensus HCCA model output, and just above the multi- model consensus after that time. The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Seymour should maintain a west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed for the next 36 to 48 hours as it nears the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located to the south of Baja California. The trough upstream of Seymour should erode the ridge further in about 48 hours and cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward while it decelerates. The guidance has again shifted toward the left during the next few days, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction but lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The model guidance is now much slower after that time, around the time Seymour decouples and becomes a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 15.3N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 15.6N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 16.7N 118.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 20.7N 122.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 22.3N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-10-24 22:40:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 242039 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 3 70(73) 1(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 15N 115W 50 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 115W 64 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 12(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 27(48) 1(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-24 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SMALL SEYMOUR RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 15.3, -111.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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