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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 11
2016-10-25 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 ...SEYMOUR NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 116.4W ABOUT 655 MI...1050 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 116.4 West. Seymour is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn toward the northwest expected Wednesday or Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Seymour is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that, Seymour is expected to weaken Wednesday through Thursday. Seymour is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-10-25 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252036 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 3 11(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 16(21) 9(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 11
2016-10-25 22:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 252036 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 116.4W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 116.4W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.2N 118.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.2N 120.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 121.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.9N 122.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-25 16:45:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Oct 2016 14:45:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Oct 2016 14:43:32 GMT
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 10
2016-10-25 16:45:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251444 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016 Microwave satellite imagery suggests that Seymour underwent an eyewall replacement during the night, with an AMSR-2 overpass at 0917 UTC showing a larger eye than seen on a Windsat overpass at 0120 UTC. The hurricane is looking better organized than 6 hours ago in infrared satellite imagery, with the eye gradually becoming more apparent and greater symmetry in the cold cloud tops around the eye. The latest satellite intensity estimates include 115 kt from TAFB, 102, kt from SAB, and 108 kt from the CIMSS satellite consensus. Based on these and current trends, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. Seymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and over SSTs of around 28C during the next 24 hours. These conditions favor additional intensification and the NHC wind speed forecast calls for a peak intensity at category 4 strength later today or early tonight. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause steady to rapid weakening. The majority of the guidance shows Seymour weakening below hurricane strength in less than 72 hours, degenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipating completely by 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and continues to lie near the upper end of the intensity guidance. The initial motion is 275/12. A mid- to upper-level ridge extending westward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward to west-northwestward for another 24 hours or so. Subsequently, a deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause a break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and northward into the break. Most of the track guidance suggests the forward motion should slow between 72-96 hours as Seymour shears apart, and this is reflected in the track forecast. The new forecast track is a little to the south of the previous track during the first 24 hours, and then is similar to the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.6N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.8N 119.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 19.5N 122.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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