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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-10-25 04:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250236 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 After rapidly intensifying during the past 30 hours, the rate of strengthening has slowed for the time being. The eye of Seymour has become cloud-filled on geostationary satellite images and microwave data indicate that the northwestern portion of the eyewall has eroded some. The observed arrested development this evening is likely due to the entrainment of dry air. However, there are already some signs that the hurricane is recovering from these effects with central convection increasing and becoming more circular during the past couple of hours. The initial intensity is set at 90 kt, slightly above the Dvorak estimates at 0000 UTC due to the improvement in organization of the system since that time. Since Seymour is expected to remain in low wind shear conditions, over warm water, and in an environment of good upper-level divergence during the next 24 hours, significant strengthening is anticipated. After that time, however, an increase in southwesterly shear should end the strengthening process. Seymour is forecast to rapidly weaken when it moves over cooler water and into hostile atmospheric conditions beginning in about 2 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the multi-model consensus, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models. Seymour is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 14 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system during the next 36 to 48 hours, which should allow Seymour to maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion. After that time, a large deep-layer low pressure system is expected to move eastward toward California and erode the ridge. This pattern change should cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then northward in 3 to 4 days. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast track. A pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind field of Seymour is very compact, with tropical-storm-force winds extending no more than 60 n mi from the center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.5N 112.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 15.9N 114.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.4N 117.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.4N 121.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 21.5N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-25 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 24 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 15.5, -112.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 8
2016-10-25 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 250235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 ...SEYMOUR EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 112.6W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 112.6 West. Seymour is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected through Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest should occur by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and Seymour is forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-10-25 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 250235 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 33 19(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 115W 50 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 23(31) 12(43) 1(44) X(44) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 1(24) X(24) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-10-25 04:34:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 250234 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC TUE OCT 25 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.6W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 112.6W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 112.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.4N 117.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.2N 119.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.4N 121.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.5N 122.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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