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Hurricane SEYMOUR Public Advisory Number 7
2016-10-24 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 242039 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE SEYMOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 ...SMALL SEYMOUR RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 111.3W ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Seymour was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 111.3 West. Seymour is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest should occur by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely, and Seymour is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Seymour is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-10-24 16:33:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 241433 TCDEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 900 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016 Seymour's cloud pattern continues to increase in organization. The cyclone's small central dense overcast has become circular and increasingly symmetric since the last advisory, with plenty of cold-topped deep convection, particularly near the center. Dvorak satellite classifications were T3.5/55 kt and T4.0/65 kt at 1200 UTC, while UW-CIMSS ADT values were around T4.5. Since that time, the cloud pattern has continued to exhibit greater organization. Thus, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt, toward the higher end of the subjective estimates. For the next 36 hours or so, Seymour should be embedded in a nearly ideal environment for intensification, characterized by low vertical wind shear, warm waters, strong upper-level divergence and a sufficiently moist atmosphere. SHIPS model output continues to indicate the likelihood of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours, and so does the official forecast. Around 48 hours, southwesterly shear associated with a vigorous trough northwest of Seymour should begin to increase and induce weakening. The shear should become prohibitively high in 3 to 4 days and result in rapid weakening, and then a decoupling of the cyclone toward the end of the forecast period. Remnant low status is predicted in 5 days, but it very likely could be sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is slightly above the multi-model consensus, close to the FSU Superensemble and the NOAA corrected consensus model, HCCA. The initial motion is 290/13. Seymour is being steered west- northwestward on the south side of deep-layer ridge near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone reaches the western edge of this ridge in about 2 days, it should encounter the flow associated with the deep-layer trough upstream of Seymour. This should result in a decrease in forward speed while the cyclone's heading turns northwestward and then sharply northward. Once a completely shallow system, Seymour or its remnants should turn north-northeast and lose its identity well west of the Baja California peninsula. The new track forecast has been adjusted westward in response to a shift of the guidance in that direction, but not as far left as the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.2N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.8N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.2N 114.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.6N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 17.4N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 23.9N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-10-24 16:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 241432 PWSEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 110W 50 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 110W 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X 8( 8) 10(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 27(27) 16(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 115W 50 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 49(63) 1(64) X(64) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 1(16) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-24 16:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Oct 24 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 15.2, -109.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-10-24 16:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 241432 TCMEP5 HURRICANE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 1500 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 109.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.2N 114.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N 116.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N 119.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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