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Summary for Tropical Storm SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-24 04:39:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SEYMOUR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 14.4, -107.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-23 23:06:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2016 20:47:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Oct 2016 21:03:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-10-23 22:46:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232046 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016 The cyclone has become better organized during the last several hours. Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core is forming, with a few curved bands surrounding this central convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are slightly higher. In addition, an ASCAT pass around 1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt. The global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain in a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days. These light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water and high mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, or perhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters, and a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymour west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next few days. After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep- layer low pressure moves eastward toward California. This pattern change will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then northward in 4 to 5 days. The models have shifted considerably to the right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 13.9N 105.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 23.1N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-10-23 22:46:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 232046 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 2100 UTC SUN OCT 23 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 77(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 110W 50 X 25(25) 6(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 15N 110W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 27(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 36(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 4(22) X(22) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 24(49) 2(51) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm SEYMOUR (EP5/EP202016)
2016-10-23 22:46:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 the center of SEYMOUR was located near 13.9, -105.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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