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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-10-24 10:52:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240852 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.5W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.5W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.4N 110.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.4N 115.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 117.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.6N 121.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 23.0N 121.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Graphics
2016-10-24 05:03:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Oct 2016 02:41:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Oct 2016 03:03:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-10-24 04:40:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240240 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 900 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016 Seymour's convective pattern has continued to improve since the previous advisory, with the development of a mid-level eye feature noted in 23/2250Z and 24/0107Z SSMI/S microwave images. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, respectively, and T3.6/57 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is set on the low side of these estimates at 45 kt for this advisory, which could be conservative. The initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. For the next 72 h, the global models remain in excellent agreement on Seymour moving west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located over Mexico. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn northward around the western portion of the ridge and ahead of a shortwave trough forecast to approach Seymour from the northwest by late Wednesday. The official forecast track lies basically down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. The global and regional models indicate environmental conditions are forecast to be quite favorable for additional strengthening to occur during the next 3 days. In fact, due to a combination of the vertical shear being low at around 5 kt, mid-level humidity values being near 70 percent, sea-surface temperatures expected to be at least 29 deg C, and the recent development of a mid-level eye, a period of rapid intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours. This trend is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models, and also by the HWRF model and the new NOAA Corrected Consensus Model, HCCA, which makes Seymour a major hurricane by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough and SSTs less than 25 deg C and are expected to induce rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast lies close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which is significantly higher than the previous advisory, but remains well below the peak intensity forecast of 110 kt by HCCA and the 112-kt forecast from the HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.4N 107.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 14.9N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 16.1N 114.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 116.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 18.7N 120.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 22.0N 120.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-10-24 04:40:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240240 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 41 52(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 110W 50 5 65(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 110W 64 1 28(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 13(35) 4(39) X(39) X(39) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 46(49) 12(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 14(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 1(22) X(22) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) 16(66) 1(67) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 12(32) X(32) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 4
2016-10-24 04:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240239 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 107.1W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 107.1W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.9N 109.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.6N 111.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 35SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.1N 114.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N 116.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.7N 120.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 22.0N 120.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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