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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 28
2014-08-19 22:37:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 192037 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 Although Dvorak T-numbers no longer directly support 45 knots, visible satellite images show that Karina still has a vigorous circulation. An 1807 UTC ASCAT-B overpass missed the low-level center and the western half of the circulation where stronger winds could exist, but one 38-kt surface wind vector was indicated southeast of the center. Assuming that stronger winds could exist west of the center, the initial intensity is being kept at 45 knots until we have more solid evidence of weakening. The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will likely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but it should not be strong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most likely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next 2 to 3 days because of the marginal environment. After that time, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward and northward by the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the cyclone will likely weaken. Karina is moving westward at 4 knots. The steering currents are forecast to collapse, and Karina is expected to drift westward or even meander for the next 2 to 3 days. Then, as Lowell passes to the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased forward speed within the southwesterly flow associated with the large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the dynamical guidance, which unanimously brings Karina northeastward toward Lowell. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 15.7N 134.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-19 17:09:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2014 14:35:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 27
2014-08-19 16:32:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Karina has changed very little during the past few hours. There is a well-defined convective band wrapping around the center, but there is some dry air entraining into the cyclone. The convection is not very deep, and Dvorak T-numbers are on a weakening trend supporting an initial intensity of 45 knots. The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will likely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but should not be strong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most likely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward by the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the cyclone will likely begin to weaken. Karina is already slowing down and is moving westward at 4 knots. An additional decrease in forward speed is anticipated as the steering currents collapse further, and Karina is expected to drift westward or even meander for the next 2 to 3 days. Then, as Lowell passes to the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased forward speed around the southwesterly flow associated with the large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast is very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models, which has been performing quite well with Karina so far. It is also similar to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 15.7N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 15.7N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 17.7N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 21.0N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2014-08-19 16:32:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191431 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-19 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA FORECAST TO LAST A FEW MORE DAYS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 19 the center of KARINA was located near 15.7, -134.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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