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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2014-08-20 10:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200841 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 30
2014-08-20 10:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 200840 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 40SE 80SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 135.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-20 05:09:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 02:59:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 20 Aug 2014 03:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 29
2014-08-20 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200236 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014 Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has redeveloped near Karina's center, and convective banding features have improved during the past 6 hours now that the cyclone is moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface temperatures. The result is that intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to a consensus T3.0/45 kt, so the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt. Karina is moving slowly westward or 275/04 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous reasoning. Karina is forecast to stall and/or make a small loop in 24 to 48 hours when steering currents are forecast to weaken considerably. By 72 hours and beyond, the cyclone is expected to come under the influence of southwesterly steering flow generated by the very large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell, which is currently located well to the east of Karina. The NHC model guidance is actually in very good agreement on the development of this rather complex synoptic flow pattern and eventual interaction between the two tropical cyclones. The only significant difference since the previous advisory is that the model guidance envelope has shifted well to the east. The official forecast track follows suit and has been shifted slightly to the east, but not nearly as far east as the consensus model TVCE due to the uncertainty in which direction Karina will move after the cyclone stalls and/or completes a looping motion. The outflow from Tropical Storm Lowell is expected to affect Karina within the next 12 hours, producing modest easterly to southeasterly vertical wind shear across the cyclone through 72 hours. The result is that little change in intensity is forecast, although there will likely be some small fluctuations in the intensity during that time. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is expected to steadily increase as Karina moves closer to Tropical Storm Lowell, which should induce steady weakening. By Day 5, Karina will be moving over 22C SSTs, causing the system to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus intensity model ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 15.9N 135.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2014-08-20 04:36:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 200236 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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