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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-08-19 10:32:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190832 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 134.0W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm KARINA Graphics
2014-08-19 04:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2014 02:33:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Aug 2014 02:33:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-08-19 04:32:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190232 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014 Karina has continued to become better organized over the past few hours. A convective cloud band wraps about 80 percent around the circulation, and the Dvorak data T-number from TAFB is now 3.5 which corresponds to an intensity estimate of 55 kt. The vertical shear over the storm has decreased and is forecast to stay low for another 24-36 hours. Upper-level outflow has also increased over the tropical cyclone. Therefore, Karina has an opportunity to intensify some more and it could become a hurricane tomorrow as indicated by the official forecast. Later in the forecast period, east- northeasterly shear is predicted to increase, which should cause gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model guidance through 36 hours, and close to the intensity model consensus thereafter. The forward motion continues to slow and is now around 255/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Karina should push the tropical cyclone a little farther west over the next day or two. However the westward steering is likely to end in a couple of days as Karina becomes more influenced by the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell passing to its northeast. By late in the forecast period, a broad area of southwesterly low-level flow associated with Lowell should start drawing Karina toward the northeast. The official forecast takes the storm farther northeast late in the period than the previous one, but not as much as some of our better track guidance. The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.9N 133.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 15.9N 134.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 15.9N 135.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.9N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 17.5N 134.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2014-08-19 04:32:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 190232 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-19 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 18 the center of KARINA was located near 15.9, -133.6 with movement WSW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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