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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-13 16:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 14:43:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 14:43:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-09-13 16:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 266 WTNT43 KNHC 131439 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Helene continues with very limited deep convection, only observed this morning in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are dropping, and a blend of these with the CIMSS SATCON indicates an intensity of 60 kt. Thus Helene has weakened to a tropical storm. Strong tropospheric vertical shear along with only lukewarm waters are likely contributing toward Helene's weakening. The shear should further increase during the next two days, though the sea surface temperatures will rebound up to 27C along with an increase in low-level moisture. A slow weakening is thus expected. Beginning in about three days, Helene will commence baroclinic transition, and it is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by 96 hours. This forcing should preclude any additional weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The prediction is based on a blend of the stronger HWRF dynamical model and the weaker SHIPS/LGEM statistical schemes for the next couple of days, and is based on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET global models at the extended lead times. Helene is moving northward at about 12 kt between the subtropical ridge to its east and a deep-layer trough to its west. The system should accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the next few days as it rounds the subtropical ridge and starts getting picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is based upon the variable consensus technique (TVCN) and is just north of the previous forecast through three days. The guidance suite remains tightly clustered and indicates that Helene will pass near the Azores in 2 or 3 days. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 24.8N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 27.2N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 30.8N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 34.2N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 37.2N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 40.5N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 44.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1200Z 51.5N 9.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2018-09-13 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 472 FONT13 KNHC 131437 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 39(52) 1(53) X(53) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) X(28) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-13 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Helene was located near 24.8, -37.3 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 25
2018-09-13 16:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 397 WTNT33 KNHC 131437 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...HELENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HELENE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 37.3W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Helene. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 37.3 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). The system should accelerate and turn toward the northeast by Sunday. On the forecast track, Helene will be approaching the Azores late Saturday or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have dropped to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some continued weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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