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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-14 07:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 05:38:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 03:28:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-14 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 02:38:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 03:28:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-09-14 04:34:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 558 WTNT43 KNHC 140234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Helene's cloud pattern is beginning to have the appearance of a cyclone in extratropical transition with the rain shield limited to the northwest quadrant. The Dvorak numbers have decreased, but very recent scatterometer data show winds of around 55 kt associated with Helene's circulation, and this is the intensity value used in this advisory. Most of the guidance suggests that Helene's strength should remain steady through the forecast period, perhaps due to baroclinic forcing. On this basis, the NHC forecast keeps Helene with the same intensity through the forecast period, but as a post-tropical cyclone beyond 3 days. Helene has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the north or 010 degrees at about 18 kt. The flow ahead of a sharp mid-level trough is well established, and this pattern will continue to steer Helene toward the north and then northeast during the next few days. This is consistent with most of the track guidance which is indeed tightly clustered. The NHC forecast is not very different from the previous one, and is in between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus aids. Given the increase in forward speed and the expansion of the wind field, a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a portion of the Azores early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.6N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 31.4N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 34.8N 34.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 37.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 40.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 43.0N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0000Z 46.5N 15.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/0000Z 53.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-14 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Helene was located near 28.6, -36.5 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 27
2018-09-14 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 557 WTNT33 KNHC 140233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...HELENE FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE AZORES ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 36.5W ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 36.5 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). The cyclone is expected to accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the weekend. On this forecast track, Helene will be passing near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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