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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2018-09-14 04:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 515 FONT13 KNHC 140233 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 28(28) 42(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 27
2018-09-14 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 339 WTNT23 KNHC 140233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 36.5W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 36.5W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 36.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 35.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.8N 34.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.8N 32.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.0N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 46.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 53.0N 5.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 36.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-14 01:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE HEADING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Helene was located near 27.2, -36.6 with movement N at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-14 01:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 23:46:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 21:28:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 26A
2018-09-14 01:46:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 108 WTNT33 KNHC 132346 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 800 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...HELENE HEADING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 36.6W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM SW OF LAJES IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 36.6 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). The cyclone is expected to accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the weekend. On this forecast track, Helene will be crossing over or near the Azores late Saturday or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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