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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34

2018-09-15 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 723 FONT13 KNHC 152033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)

2018-09-15 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HELENE NEARING THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Helene was located near 40.2, -32.1 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 34

2018-09-15 22:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 722 WTNT33 KNHC 152033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...HELENE NEARING THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 32.1W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/ . DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 32.1 West. Helene is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over the western Azores tonight and then approach Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, but Helene is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the warning area at this time. These conditions should continue through tonight. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts 1 to 2 inches across the far western Azores. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) are expected across western Ireland and Scotland. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 34

2018-09-15 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 742 WTNT23 KNHC 152032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 15 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/ . LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/ . TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 32.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 33.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.9N 29.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 44.4N 24.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 47.2N 17.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 51.2N 11.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 61.0N 1.0E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 140SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 32.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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