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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 35
2018-09-16 04:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 703 WTNT43 KNHC 160232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 The cloud pattern of Helene has continued to be disrupted by the high shear and cold waters. The center is well displaced to the west of the convection, and based on continuity plus the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. Helene is heading toward even colder waters and extremely high shear. This should cause the cyclone to become extratropical in 24 hours or sooner as indicated by the SHIPS guidance. By 72 hours, the cyclone should have been absorbed by a much larger low. Helene is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 22 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded in the westerlies, this general track should continue with an increase in forward speed until dissipation. This is consistent with track models which are in excellent agreement. On the forecast track, Helene should head toward Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday as a strong extratropical cyclone. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 41.2N 30.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 43.2N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 49.0N 13.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z 53.5N 6.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-16 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Helene was located near 41.2, -30.1 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 35
2018-09-16 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 990 WTNT33 KNHC 160231 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.2N 30.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Portugal has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings for all of the Azores Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/ . DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 41.2 North, longitude 30.1 West. Helene is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should move away from the Azores overnight and then approach Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be an extratropical cyclone when it reaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The Meteorological Service of Portugal reported that a wind gust of 78 mph (126 km/h) occurred in Flores Island when Helene passed to the north of that island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Winds should continue to abate in the Azores. morning. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2018-09-16 04:31:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 012 FONT13 KNHC 160231 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 35
2018-09-16 04:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 489 WTNT23 KNHC 160231 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: NONE. INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/ . LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/ . TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 30.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 160SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 330SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 30.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 31.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 43.2N 26.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.5N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 140SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 53.5N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.2N 30.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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