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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 30
2018-09-14 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 001 WTNT43 KNHC 142035 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 The 40-45 kt of southwesterly vertical shear has really taken its toll on Helene's cloud pattern. A severe tilt toward the northeast is evident in conventional and microwave imagery. Despite the sheared structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt due to the earlier scatterometer pass showing that value in the northeast quadrant, and a 1603 UTC SATCON analysis that yields an intensity estimate of 58 kt. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours as Helene remains over 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures. Beyond that brief period, the cyclone should weaken a bit as it completes extratropical transition while passing just to the northwest of the Azores Islands and traversing much cooler waters. The European models and the Canadian still show Helene being absorbed by a larger baroclinic system in 4 days, as the cyclone quickly approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. The GFS, which earlier indicated a different solution resulting in Helene taking a more north- northeastward to northwest track around the periphery of a larger, complex non-tropical low, now shows Helene merging with a front, similar to the European and Canadian scenario. A series of recent microwave passes reveal that Helene's surface circulation has been tracking quite a bit to the left of the previous forecasts. Consequently, an adjustment to the best track was made to conform more with the microwave overpasses. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/16 kt. It is also quite possible that there maybe some binary involvement between Helene and Tropical Storm Joyce that could be influencing a motion just to the left of track. In any event, a north-northeast to northeast turn is expected over the weekend as the cyclone accelerates within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is again adjusted to the left through 36 hours, due to the much welcomed microwave images, and is in best agreement with TVCN multi-model consensus. Helene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in a few days. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 34.1N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 36.4N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 38.9N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 41.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 43.3N 25.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/1800Z 49.5N 12.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2018-09-14 22:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 513 FONT13 KNHC 142034 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 2 39(41) 41(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 3( 3) 27(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-14 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE AZORES SATURDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Helene was located near 34.1, -36.8 with movement N at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Advisory Number 30
2018-09-14 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 358 WTNT23 KNHC 142034 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALL OF THE AZORES ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE IRELAND AND UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS://WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT HTTPS://WWW.MET.IE/. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 36.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 36.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 37.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.4N 36.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.9N 33.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.0N 30.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.3N 25.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 49.5N 12.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 160SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 36.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 30
2018-09-14 22:34:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 357 WTNT33 KNHC 142034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...HELENE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE AZORES SATURDAY... ...EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE AZORES THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 36.8W ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM WSW OF LAJES AIR BASE IN THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Interests in the Ireland and United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 36.8 West. Helene is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h), A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast early Saturday followed by a turn toward the northeast by Sunday morning. On the forecast track, Helene will pass near or over the Azores late Saturday or Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected over the weekend as Helene makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches across the Azores, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches across the western Azores. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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