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Summary for Tropical Storm Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-16 01:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES... ...WINDS AND RAINS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Sep 15 the center of Helene was located near 40.4, -31.4 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Helene Public Advisory Number 34A
2018-09-16 01:35:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 137 WTNT33 KNHC 152335 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 800 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 ...HELENE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE AZORES... ...WINDS AND RAINS SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.4N 31.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * All of the Azores Islands A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. The Tropical Storm Warning will likely be discontinued by Sunday morning. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ . Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/ . DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Helene was located near latitude 40.4 North, longitude 31.4 West. Helene is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Helene should continue to move past the western Azores overnight and then approach Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, but Helene is expected to transition to an extratropical cyclone as it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. Wind gusts to 35 mph (55 km/h) were recently reported on Flores Island in the Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area at this time. These conditions should begin to abate by Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the far western Azores. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) are expected across western Ireland and Scotland. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another couple of days and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-16 01:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 23:35:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 21:28:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Graphics
2018-09-15 22:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:35:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Sep 2018 20:35:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Helene Forecast Discussion Number 34
2018-09-15 22:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 251 WTNT43 KNHC 152034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018 The cloud pattern of Helene is gradually decaying and transitioning to a shear pattern, with the low-level center occasionally visible through breaks in the cirrus overcast. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus. Helene is moving toward colder water and into increasing shear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies. This should cause continued weakening and, as Helene merges with a frontal system, extratropical transition in about 36 h. The forecast will continue to call for Helene or its remnants to be absorbed into a large non-tropical low over the North Atlantic between 72-96 h, and the latest global model guidance suggests this could happen earlier than forecast. The initial motion is now 050/19. A mostly northeastward motion at a faster forward speed should occur during the remainder of the cyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the westerlies. On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over the western Azores during the next several hours, and head toward Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday. There are again no significant changes to either the track guidance or the official forecast track since the last advisory. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over portions of the Azores and should continue through tonight. Helene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three days. Interests in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 40.2N 32.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 41.9N 29.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 44.4N 24.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 47.2N 17.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z 51.2N 11.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1800Z 61.0N 1.0E 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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